Pick of the Day – 6/13/2019

Toronto Raptors @ Golden State Warriors -2.5, Total – 211.5

For any Warriors fan wanting JUST.ONE.MORE game at Oracle Arena, they’ve gotten their wish. A gritty win over the Raptors on Monday night, 106-105, came with an incredibly steep price. Kevin Durant aggravated and completely ruptured his Achilles’ tendon in the first half. 

It’s a shame, for more reasons than one, because KD was playing lights out. 3-3 from 3 and a pair of free throws gave ‘The Slim Reaper’ a quick 11 points. Golden State’s offense had the Raptors defense chasing shooters in the halfcourt. It looked as though the tide of the series was changing.

Toronto Klaw-ed their way back on the heels of Kawhi Leonard’s second-half outburst. Able to focus more on Steph and Klay, the Raptors whittled the lead down throughout the final two quarters. It wasn’t until the Splash Brothers had a 3-point barrage of their own that the game was finally sealed.

3-Pointers Define Game 5 and the Series

In every game of this year’s Finals, the winner has won the three-point battle in conversion % and number made in the game. Additionally, the road team has won this stat in 4 of the 5 games played.

Game 1: TOR (13/33 – 39.4% – W)/ GSW (12/31 – 38.7%)

Game 2: TOR (11/38 – 28.9%)/ GSW (13/34 -38.2% – W)

Game 3: GSW (12/36 – 33.3%)/ TOR (17/38 – 44.7% – W)

Game 4: GSW (8/27 – 29.6%)/ TOR (10/32 – 31.3% – W)

Game 5: TOR (8/32 – 25.0%)/ GSW (20/42 – 47.6% – W)

Despite a massive advantage in 3-pt % and FGs made, Golden State was lucky to survive Game 5. Kevin Durant’s impact, although short-lived, was significant enough to be the end different for a W.

Golden State With KD: 8-12 from 3 (75%) 

After KD Injury: 12-30 (40%)

Now I won’t harp on the Warriors shooting 40% from 3 after KD left the game, but there is a profound difference in Golden State’s efficiency without him on the floor. His presence allows the former champs to shoot in rhythm and with more breathing room. It may be a case of Golden State returning to true form, or playing to live another day, but they have failed to hit above 40% in any other game this series.

Pick: The Warriors are up against a wall again and are guaranteed to come out swinging. However, a bitter taste is in Toronto’s mouth failing to close out a title at home by a measly point. I expect both teams to come out playing hard and aggressively. The Raptors only made 25% of their 3s in Game 5 and have won every game when reaching at least 30%. 

The Raptors have been unloading from 3 just as much as the Warriors, but also have the better defensive plan thus far. I expect Toronto to exceed the 30% mark and hang with the +2.5 mark to close it out tonight. However, points should be plentiful tonight.

Over 211.5

Bonus WNBA Game: Indiana Fever -3 @ Dallas Wings

Indiana has lost 3 of their last 5 games, while Dallas has not tallied a win yet this season. The Wings have caught the injury bug and will be facing a Fever team that beat them by 15 at home only two weeks ago. Healthy in that game, the Wings are likely to be torched down low in this game. 

Indiana Fever -3

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